Non-rocket but fun...

EDN published a short "Tales from the Cube" of mine.
This happened along time ago ~1990

Notional Next Rocket...

Its still going to be six months or more before I can really start working on this, but its my next notional rocket. It uses the motor valves and actuators from the Silver vehicle in a more aerodynamic shape. The Green tanks are Wellmate WM12 tanks with the air bladders removed, and the blue tank is the WM-6 that was the fuel tank on the silver. With a 16" diameter and 380 liters of light weight 500 PSI tankage it should go to 100K ft +. Its basically 20 ft tall.
The tanks would be joined together with carbon fiber barrels bonded to the tanks.

Bucket List Item....

I've always wanted to watch a shuttle launch.
I saw the very first shuttle land at Edwards, but I've never seen an orbital launch of any kind.

After a little contact fishing I just received a VIP invite to watch STS-130. Thank you Will and Andrew!
This is a night launch so it should be spectacular.

Fate of the Blue Ball....

The Blue ball has minimal development value for where I want to go with Urocket.
I was going to donate it to the Xprize to hang in their lobby. I talked to my accountant today and learned that I can't have an increase in basis for a self created asset, that's CPA for I won't get any kind of deduction if I donate it. Its basically intact, it would be 100% ready to fly with less than 8 hours of work so next time I'm out at FAR I will bring it home and fix it. Then I will fly it.

Without doing any paperwork I can fly it to 1199 ft AGL and back. To go higher than that I'll need an FAA waiver. So in the next few days I'll do a detailed model of what it can do and write a waiver request. I'll probably fly it in 60 to 90 days to max altitude (more than 10K less than 30Kft) and back to the pad. If anyone wants to fly an experiment on it when I fly it let me know.

• less than 5Kg,
• self powered ,
• 100% open public results
  

I'll probably let people on the blog vote for their favorite if I get more than one request.

Tiger, Jaycee Dugard ,Me ,darwin, and motivation.

(Stick with this it will really end up almost on topic)
Tiger
The current fascination people have with the Tiger Woods is interesting because the image he projects is perfect, he is a gifted athlete, smart, well spoken, respected, rich, married to a super model, his life is perfect in every way. Yet we learn that at some level he is not satisfied with what he has.

Jaycee
Jaycee Dugard is captured as a little girl raped and held captive for 18 years, yet we read that she had adjusted to her life and even felt some attachment to the monster that did this to her.

Un-happiness in the perfect life and happiness in the horrible life, whats going on?

Me
I think its human nature to adjust your expectations to your situation. Last year my business had the best year ever, I had the time and budget to pursue the LLC dream and work on a really interesting project, I was truly fortunate to have that. It was a great year. In the Month after the contest I've not yet come to grips with the fact that the economy is in the pits and I really can't afford to work on the rockets for awhile. I've got to go work really hard to maintain the business in this climate rather than seeing it grow. (We're down 36% year to date yet we have not laid anyone off) My personal setpoint had adjusted to the thrill and success and its really depressing to try and adjust it back. The vast majority of humanity would be ecstatic to trade places with me, yet I'm depressed about it. 5 years ago I'd be ecstatic, I think we really only react to the changes, not the absolute level of things in our life.

Darwin
When I stop and ponder this I come it an interesting question. What is the natural state of humans? From an evolutionary standpoint I can see that sit in the corner depressed is not effective and would be selected out of the gene pool. However I can also see that a slight unease or paranoia could have benefits. If one group of humans is satisfied and happy and settles in for the winter, they would be at a disadvantage to another group the was just a little bit uneasy and focused that energy at being more productive and gathering a few more nuts and animal skins for the winter. So what is the natural state of the most productive humans?

Motivation
What drives productive motivation? Is motivation bordering on obsession good or bad for production? Should I just rest and relax for awhile, or shoudl I try and get fired up to work on the things I can actually do, like clean the workshop, develop a simulator, do a peper design for a nanosat vehicle? What purpose does recharge and satisfaction setpoint "reset" have in the process? My wife has studyied a lot of Buddhist philosophy, IE live in the now and be happy with what you have. Any really productive Buddhist scientists and engineers? Is society better served by the hedonist pursuing things in the free market where he is driven to create value so he can have pleasure? I've always though Maslow's hierarchy of needs was a better gage that pure hedonism. The happiest times in my life have been associated with creating something , or bringing an idea to realization. I've posed a lot of hard questions all much less clear than the rocket equation, yet more important when trying to accomplish things in the world.

Cleaning the workshop.....

My Son and I spent the better part of Saturday trying to clean up the workshop.
On Sunday I took 180lbs of scrap metal to the recyclers.

It was hard to scrap things I'd put hundreds of hours of work into, but that is what is needed.

The stuff I did for LLC is larger than the scale I intend to work on going forward so very little of it is presently useful.

Trying to return to a normal life, but I still find the end of the LLC leaves a big hole.

I'm putting some focus and effort into work to try an make up for the last few months of neglect and to rebuild the rocket fund.

I'll be the guest on the Space Show this Friday the 27th.

Its a bird, its a plane its a drag!

The LLC vehicles have had almost no aerodynamic constraints. The Rocket Racers of Armadillo and Xcor used off the shelf airframes with established functional aerodynamics. Not even spacex has yet dealt with aerodynamics in any complciated way. The Spacex falcon 1 did have aerodyanmic Max Q issues, and probably aerothermal issues, but there were no aerodynamic controls and aerodyamics does not get much simpler than a long round tube with a pointy end.
(The recovery parachutes of the F1 first stage either were not included or failed)

Spacex is about to fly the dragon capsule with hypersonic aerodynamics, aero thermal, and stable parachute deployment and recovery issues. Armadillo is starting to fly to higher altitudes, Masten hopes to soon follow and or surpass what Armadillo has been doing.
Xcor is planing their next rocket vehicle where the aerodynamics include transonic and some aero thermal issues.

From a rocketry stand point the smaller New Space organizations (Masten ,Armadillo and Xcor) are nearing the level of rocketry sophistication reached by the Germans at the end of WWII. Please note that the Germans never flew a supersonic aircraft. (Yes the V2 was supersonic) Get in your time machine fly back to 1946 and ask Chuck Yeager if supersonic is a big deal?

If an LLC L2 vehicle was flown on an airless earth with zero drag and maintained a steady state 4G acceleration (3 g net) it would run out of propellant near 30Km and coast to 119Km before falling back to earth. Using my really simple aerodynamic model... assuming a Masten Glow of 900 lbs, and 25" diameter with very good aerodyamics removing the 25Kg payload and flying the same 4G flight Mastens L2 vehicle would reach about 116Kf or 35Km. Now in practice you would probably have to throttle back to reduce max Q if you picked 300Knots as max Q equivalent then you would have your velocity limited by maxQ until at least 40Kft and one would trade more gravity loss for reduced aerodynamic losses and get to about the same place just over 115K ft.

This not an up and soft land simulation, this is a up up and away simulation with a crash landing at the end. So given the stated goals of both armadillo and Masten to fly payloads to space they will need vehicles that are both higher performing and more aerodynamic than what they presently have.
(A max Q of 300 knots equivalent may not seem like very fast in a world with 500knot airliners, but a skydiver released into a 300 knot airstream would experience more than 8 g of deceleration.)

I vaguely remember Henry Spencer making a comment that the Apollo command module heat shield had an eqiuivalent ISP of 7000. If your going to build reusable vehicles that fly to space and come back its never going to make sense to kill your velocity via propulsion as long as we are using chemical fuels. So when reusable suborbital vehicles start flying to 100km they will need to use aerodynamics to scrub off the energy from the gravitational potential.

Will this look like the space ship 2 shuttle cock? will it look like NASA's hypersonic ring slot parachutes developed for viking and used on every mars landing since? Will it be airplane like?
I think this is going to be a harder problem than many think. Mr Musk of spacex has been quoted as saying that a fly back first stage booster would be a really useful thing to reduce space access costs, but it would cost > $1B to develop. Some solutions look simple like the rocket becomes winged vehicle as shown in Charles Pooley's Microlauncher presentation. I don't think that an easily fabricated simple wing will function well with supersonic shocks, flutter stiffness etc... One wants a shape that can give you decelerating lift at high altitude, does not provide much drag on the way up and is structurally stable at all points in between. This is a you pick any two sort of problem. The U2 had very long thin wings to get get lift at high altitude. Yet it it was a subsonic aircraft and as a result operated in a very narrow box where a few knots faster and it hit Mach buffet and a few knots slower and it stalled.

One can work around these issues by using a combination, like a hypersonic parachute to decelerate you to subsonic followed by rotate open wings to glide back to base.

Whatever features will be used they will require testing. With the exception of xcor all of these vehicles are unmanned. The regulatory environment for testing rockets under the amateur or experimental permit rules are now well defined and reasonable friendly. If one is developing a glide back system one would like to test the basic aero controls, flight, landing etc in an incremental manner. Just try getting the FAA to give you permission to fly such an unmanned vehicle in their airspace? The Aircraft side of the FAA is significantly less understanding than the AST. (Just ask John Carmack) So from a regulatory standpoint one is going to have to fly it as a rocket under AST's jurisdiction. This is not testing that can easily be done under tether, or even at the locations that Armadillo and Masten are currently flying from.

None of this is impossible, its just another layer of problems to be tackled. Anyone have any good recommendations for a good book on supersonic aerodynamics ?

Crystal ball gazing....

Its clear that Armadillo and Masten are going to take their lander technology and pursue scientific and other payloads to the ignoreasphere. (IE the space between 100Kft and 150Km). If we had won any LLC $ at all our plans would be similar. This by itself is not going to change the world. (Masten article in AV week)

In an optimistic scenario it allows both Masten and Armadillo to become cash flow positive and continue to develop. From a pure business stand point one can count the number of heads in the masten shop make some educated guesses about rent and insurance etc.. and one would come up with a burn rate some where between 500K and 1.5M a year. So the new found prize money buys them another year of operation. Today's masten press release had a figure of about 100K per flight. Assuming they have good gross margins and get 20 or so customers a year they have an on-going growing business.

Beyond the scientific payloads to the ignorasphere you will have people like scaled/virgin providing man tended flights to this region for prices double what Masten is quoting for a "Brick" When that starts happening Mastens prices are going to have to plummet to compete.

The next big step is some sort of orbital capability. I don't see a clear revenue path for incremental improvements from high suborbital to orbital. The Technology shown by armadillo and Masten (hover for ~200 sec iat 9.8m/sec) give a DV of 1962m/sec. To reach orbit with a small high drag vehicle (small == high drag) one needs at least 8000 m/sec dv. Giving some credit for vac ISP gains and calling the present vehicles the 2nd of three stages one could probably put a 5 lb "brick" in orbit with a gross lift off on the order of 10000 lb. Is there a market?

Clearly spacex has demonstrated there is a potential market for 200Kg payloads, but 50 to 100 times smaller? Can either Masten or Armadillo grow into this spot without significant outside capital? Only time will tell.

I'm a real fan of simple dumb booster. The series LEO on the cheap has a lot going for it. As I've said before I really liked the Beal Aerospace approach, big simple pressure fed. I just think he aimed too high for the first vehicle. Something 10 times smaller would have been a good start.
Even starting there its hard to rough out a plan that does not take $50M+ to get to cash flow positive and profitable. Virgin recently got investments on that order and maybe they can grow into this space.

I've often thought about writing a detailed business plan to seek funding, but I have major personal resistance to becoming another one on the long list of people that say "just write me a really large check and trust me I'll build a spacecraft that owns the market." To properly assemble a plan that could realistically get funding is a lot of work with low probablity of success.

The engineering is not really even a big part of the problem, one has to also build a functioning organization with Management, recruiting, HR, legal, government liaison, etc.... It would be hard to just bring forth such an organization in a timely manner given infinite funds. Space lauunch is such a broad problem covering so many disciplines It would be really hard to find someone to
organize the business part if you had the perfect engineering team already in place. How many people have a sset up a brand new manufacturing facility on that scale in the U.S. in the last 20 years? Not many.

Where do I go from here? The question is a lot broader than the technical topics discussion I wrote last week. Do I want Unreasonable to be a slightly profitable side business?? Do I want to compete against Masten/Armadillo as a the lowest cost provider? Can I contribute something technically to this 'space'? Do I have the chutzpa to try creating a externally funded start up?
I've worked at funded start ups and my current business that was started with zero outside $ in 1998 was a lot simpler to start and has done well. How far outside of my personal comfort zone would I like to stretch?

I've even contemplated sending a resume to Spacex, but I have not figured out where we could live within driving distance to Hawthorne without a reduction in our standard of living.

On a personal level its been a hard week watching the LLC awards ceremony and having tons of people tell me our accomplishments were amazing. Feels a lot like I think 4th place at the Olympics would feel. Amazing results, just not as amazing as gold,silver and bronze. Its really frustrating at some level.

Over the last year my schedule was up at 5am work on Unreasonable til 8:30 take a shower go to work, come home at 6pm work on unreasonable. This last week I've been getting to work before 7 and leaving around 4:30. Coming home and feeling lost. I still have not gotten up the motivation to tackle the entropy in the workshop.

I'm gathering up some data on the technical performance of Masten, Armadillo, unreasonable and several other interesting ideas and some time in the two weeks I'm going to do an ideas with supporting "numbers" post.

On Discovery Channel....

We were on the daily planet show on the discovery channel in Canada last night.
You can see the show.

16 hrs of sleep (in a single night!) is helpful....

I slept 16 hours last night and I am feeling much better.
Thanks to everyone for the kind words.

Over the next month or two I'll take some time and describe some of the projects on the
"want to do next" list. I'm going to have to pick one or two off the list. The list is large enough that it will have to undergo significant triage. A smattering of ideas:

Do I work on guidance and controls? (I have a magazine that wants me to publish a seires on the helicopter guidance and controls) I'd like to build a full up system to go on existing airframes that duplicates most of the capabilties of the dragon fly

Do I work to build a hardware in the loop simulator tailored to become an open toolkit for others? I have some really good ideas in this realm ,but I really need to find someone that can help with the core math and transforms part of this. I can do all the basic physics simulation in 2D, but when I try to model things like what a 25 lb gimbaled engine deflection does to to the vehicle in 3D IE accouting for the 3D rotational intetias of both the motor and the rest of the vehicle when the momentum transfers between the two peices are constrained to 2 axis by the gimbal joint, add to this that the deflection changes the rotational inertia of the system in the roll axis my head explodes. As the gimbaled mass is more than 15% of the vehicle weight I don't think you can just ignore the effect. My rocket parts bin does not have any spherical frictionless cows so I can't make thoose assumptions. (If that makes no sense to you you probaly had a different college physics class than I did)


Do I finish my electric pumped hi pressure rocket demonstrator.

Do I do work on better catalysts. I got a really good download of information on Beal's catalyst development and would like to pursue this but the basic equipment to do or hire the flame spray metal application is outside the present budget.

Do I go back to permangenate and static mixing tubes to skip the whole catalyst. (I have all the parts on hand for this experiment so the necessary budget is close to zero)

Do I go back to Lox and ignitors? (The helium cost is a killer)

I really like the small pump work done at LLNL I'd like to duplicate that.

The low cost turbo pump ideas described on Charles Micro Launchers site are of interest.

I have a hankering to build a 10K lb tube wall motor that would be usefull as the first stage in a
reusable booster.

Glide back airframes and or parachutes are of interest.

Do I work on full up vehicles?
This is the most expensive option if I do this I think I will use Wellmate WM35WB for peroxide and WM-6LP for fuel as the WM-6 I used for a fuel tank on silver worked really well.
Using a derivative of silvers propulsion system this could go to 50K ft and then soft land, or well over 100Kt and parachute back.

Any customer(s) with $ to spend could push any one of these items to the top of the list....

After Action Report.

We destroyed silver and badly damaged blue. The root cause was not enough time and budget to do the necessary testing. Primary lesson only work on one vehicle at a time.

Blue:
In Early September we flew multiple long flights, as long as 106 seconds. We then parked the vehicle. On Thursday I merged the navigation code I'd flown on the helicopter with the hover code on blue. I picked the wrong code branch and it did not have the wiggle correction in it, so it wasted too much thrust wiggling and did not have sufficent thrust to lift off. After sitting with what must have been an in inadequate purge the cat pack was badly corroded. On Saturday I changed the cat pack and added the gain scheduling to correct the wiggles. I was worried based on Friday that it might not get off the ground so I loaded what I calculated to be the minimum necessary propellant+ 2% , it flew for 85 Seconds then crashed on the 2nd pad. See: You Tube from on board and Video looking out. It looks like my code slicing and dicing also missed the roll or yaw control fix I put in the blue ball as yaw seemed largely uncontrolled. Based on the takeoff acceleration we could have put a lot more propellant into the vehicle and done the full 90 seconds.

Silver:
I was really happy with the way silver turned out. It was very clean , light and capable. I just could not get io hover stably. It looked like a control loop integral wind up issue. From a sportsman ship stand point both Ben and Ian of Masten asked suggested that was the problem. I had turned off the Integral Gain on position hold as one of my first steps, alas the strange mix of code from three sources had a cut and paste error so there was still an integral term inplay even after I thought I'd turned it off. I'm 90 % sure that with 2 extra hours to slow down and review I'd have fixed it. We came very close: Silver ball hover.

The eventual fault that killed it was a bit subtle. On the blue ball when I hit the command abort it shuts the motor off cleanly it just closes the main valve. On the silver we purge on shutdown, and we purge hard, this causes a shut down thrust transient as residual propellants are forced through the motor. Couple that with the choice to center the motor and kill active attitude control when aborting and one gets wild gyrations on abort. Yes can see Ben's video of its final flight.

On a personal level I'm really glad I got the one 94% successful flight out of the blue ball. It at least shows we were close. It also shows what a small team can accomplish. On the flip side we walk away from the contest with nothing tangible to show for the effort. This project has been a really big part of my life for the last year and it leaves a big hole. At the end it became an unhealthy all consuming obsession as the clock wound down and we ran out of time and budget. From a financial stand point it also means no playing with rockets for at least 6 months to a year as I try to rebuild the rocket fund.

Only time will tell if I eventually see the overall project as a positive thing. It does not seem that way this morning.

Last Post before contest...

I'm waiting for the last batch of Cat screens to heat up in the toaster oven before dipping in the secret sauce. So I have a few minutes. The rest of the day is going to be crazy so I won't post again until after the contest.

Nominally this is a two person team, Myself and My son, but in reality there is a large array of people that help out.

First and foremost is my wife Mariellen, without her support and assistance in a million ways both big and small this would not be possible.

My son. Without his help and countless hours this would not be possible. It has been a real joy to spend three years working with my son on a big project.

Bob our Welder. In the past week he has put in as many hours as we have. Without his assistance we could not possibly have been ready.

Charles Pooley of Microlaunchers. Charles has spent countless days and nights out at FAR helping us test.

Carl Tedesco of Flometrics. Carl has been a help both here iin San Diego and out at the FAR site.
He has offered help with both technical, fabrication and just being there to lend a hand.

Steve Harrington of Flometrics if you need to solve a fulids, flow, valving, heat transfer, or aerodynamics problem Steve is the goto guy. His assitance with figuring out the flow and flluid " science part of the rockets has been invaluable. So if you need anyhting done in this area give Steve a call.

Kevin Baxter. President of the FAR organization. Keven has been the driving force in creating a world class rocket test facility from scratch at FAR.

Mark and Ted of FAR. The other two principals in FAR have been invaluable in their help and assistance.

Michael Carden of XL Space systems. He has been my propellant supplier and peroxide guru for all things related.

Tom and all the guys at NetBurner that have been understanding of the CTO vanishing for every increasing amounts of time.

John Carmack and all the guys at Armadillo for being open, kind and helpful to a competitor.

All the guys at Masten, they have all been supportive and helpful.

Wynn Aung and all the people at the FAA that have been helpful and professional throughout the whole process.

Will ,Nicole Bill, and all the Xprize people that have organized the event for 4 years.

All the neighbors who think I'm crazy, but are still supportive anyway.

All the readers of this blog that have offer encouragement and kind words.

Good news...

I went to bed certain that our 180 second vehicle was dead. We split the tank over 20 inches of the main seam. My son and our welder Bob would not give up they got up at 6 am and spent the day grinding bending and otherwise beating the tank back into shape. They then re-welded the bad seam. At 2:30pm this afternoon it passed Hydro. Its clear that we are real close with little margin, but we do not pressurize in the presence of humans so even if it failed we would not hurt anyone. This was a 12 hr detour that we did not need. Its still a Hail Mary to be ready for the 180, but we are not yet dead.

As a result we are probably not going to be ready Friday Morning, its more likely we will try a Friday Afternoon flight and one or more Saturday Flights. I'm a bit hesitant to post the FAR map as we have had some theft problems, but I am going to post it for the next 24 hours.

If you want to come watch the earliest possible start is a Friday Noon safety briefing.
The Saturday Safety briefing will be at 7 am Saturday Morning. If you want to Camp at FAR you can. If yotu are not Xprize or Judges you will need to sign a FAR liabiliy waiver. You must be at the briefing to attend the event. It is very possible that Friday will be canceled entirely.

Far is a good 45 minutes from Mojave, and the road is rough. You may find the map here.

The ball is dropped in the end zone.

The tank failure we had last night is not recoverable in three days. We are not going to fly the 180 second L2 silver ball this year. If Masten continues their recent rapid progress and finishes the L2 180 second flights we will probably never fly the silver ball again. Its basically scrap metal.

At a personal level I've worked on this project for 3 years and spent enough $ to buy a nice house anywhere but CA. . We came oh so very close to fielding two vehicles, a tiny bit less corrosion in a weld and we would have two vehicles ready to fly.(Proof the Silver flew) As a team of two we built and flew two complete vehicles, but the odds are now that we will walk away with nothing to show for our efforts. Its a really really bitter pill.

I'm now going to get a long stream of comments saying you were two guys in a garage up against teams with multimillion dollar budgets. This is true, but there is no junior varsity contest, just the one contest. I started this to compete and hopefully win, its not to be.

My current task is to scrape myself off the floor and try to get the Blue Ball ready to fly. We have a legitimate shot of tying Masten for the L1 2nd prize.

Progress ,...

We ground off all the mounting tabs we were not using.
We welded the Safety Vent to the vehicle instead of using a heavy Stainless sanitary clamp.
We shortened the legs etc.... So we need to re-hydro the main tank. We got a pin hole leak where we ground off unused tabs. Argh!!! Weld a plate over and try again.. We needed to get to 425 PSI. The Tank Failed at 350 on the main seam. . We had hydro-ed it to 400 in the spring, so over the last 6 months it lost 50 PSI. Probably means we are done for the 180.

We patched the tank on the blue ball after a hydro failure, we will look at patching this tank in the AM, but 95% sure it means no 180 for us.

Progress....

I have a theory as to why the cat pack suddenly died. (80% confidence) and I know how to avoid the issue. It was not my cost saving short cut. The old cat pack is being nitric acid stripped and re-plated. I've got all the material for a new no shortcuts CAT pack arriving at 8am Tuesday, with the Waterjet and Plateing house lined up to get a new one made. This should be ready Wednesday Afternoon.

We spent the day removing 40 lbs form the silver ball (Stainless fuel tanks and plumbing and misc unused fittings and bits. We then added back back 20lbs including a New higher capacity composite fuel tank and pressure bottles for external pressurization. The whole vehicle should be back together late Tuesday or Early Wednesday. It could hold double the propellant and it weighs 20 lbs less. The takeoff limitation will now be engine thrust, not propellant capacity.

If I can duplicate my in flight measured ratio of theoretical to actual performance I'll have 200 seconds of hover.

The LLC judges inspected our lunar pad and it passed.

Someone asked me today when I last had 8 hrs of sleep I asked if they meant in a single week?

Going to sleep UPS promises to arrive before 8 am.

6 Days

Our 90 Second Vehicle is Ready.
Our RTK GPS tests with the helicopter say we have a chance to tie Masten in the 90 sec contest, but beating them outright would require some significant luck.

Our 180 Second vehicle is going to go down to the last minute. I disassembled the Motor and it looks good inside, the screens just look like they all got too hot. I think I need to change my warmup purge sequence. The sad part is that I really don't need to do a Cat pack warmup for normal ops, only for Tether ops as I need finer control of the in initial altitude on tether.

The vehicle flies at least as well as the blue ball, but we need to add a pressurization tank and
make weight reduction modifications to have any margin at all on the 180 second flight. Motor pressure drops are high so we need to hydro to a higher pressure and if the tank fails there we are done. I have parts of a spare Catalyst, but I took a cost reduction short cut on the last batch and they did not last as long as the previous batch. So I need to next day air some screen material and beg the waterjet and plating house to perform a miracle. It is all going to come down to the wire.

As one of the recent Masten posts commented about recent progress "we have had multiple consecutive miracles. " We will need similar to do 180. If we can fly for 180 seconds we can beat Armadillos accuracy, so it becomes a risk reward game.... IE On Saturday morning if we have a vehicle that would cost 50K to reproduce that has a 10% chance of success and a 90 % chance of destruction do we make the attempt? (0.9 * -$50K) vs (0.1 *$1M ) The calculus changes a little bit depending on Masten's result.

Are recently discussed on Twitter, Bon Nova is not going to fly this year.
I know exactly where they are in the process and its a really hard place to be in .
so close, but no realistic chance of completion, we were there last year.

Plans Update

We are going to go out to the site On Wedensday Morning set up and work on non-rocket flight things. RTK GPS base, Helicopter testing etc....(Can't fly the rocket on Wedensday, I forgot to Fax my FAA notification)
We will be flight testing Thursday and Friday and I think I have help for those days.
Its really hard to plan more than a day or two in advance but its really likely that I'll need some help during the week next week. So if you were so inclined check in on the blog or unrocket on twitter.

The current flight plans are to attempt the 90 second flight Friday Morning the 30th and the 180 second flight Saturday the 31st. If you want to come out and watch you will need to attend the safety briefing TBD some time late next week in Mojave. You will also need to sign the FAR liability waiver, I'll bring copies to the safety briefing.

The FAR site is about 45 minutes from Mojave out route 14. I'll provide a detailed map at the safety briefing.

The trip includes 10 miles of somewhat rough dirt road. (My wife drives her Honda civic out the road so its not too terrible.) Its actually really fun in my STI.

If you want to attend both days and can be 100% self sufficent you can probably camp on site Thursday Night and Friday. We will be camping on site and we will need our sleep so I'd really appreciate no 3am arrivals.

You can find my E-mail address phonetically in the comments of the previous blog thread.

A quick update...

Currently in the passenger seat of the car on the way home.
Just spent 4 days at FAR camping. Worked on three things...

1)Navigating Pad to Pad flying the exact desired LLC profile with the helicopter, and new GPS system. This work went very well, many exactly repeatable flights, only one scare the GPS needs more voltage for proper operation than all the other electronics, so one flight the system battery was low and even tired, sun burnt and sleep deprived at dusk I mangaged to save the helicopter by taking over.

2)We had a very poorly timed large project for a customer. It was the largest rocket ever fired at FAR and the test went really well. Can't really say more.

3)We tyried to hover the silver ball. We got the altitude stuff under controll, but never managed a stable hover. Nothing we did in the way of loop tuning seemd to help. Got up before sunrise this morning to carefully look at everything in the system. I did some sweeps of the gimbal actuators trying to precisely measure dead band and hystersis. Came up with a sequience where the actuator moved OPPOSITE of the commanded direction. This jives with observations and as we would hover then just all of a sudden flip over to the abort limit. Seems to come and go depending on how I press on the PCB, I had no replacement with me so it means going home.

My son is in the middle of starting a new business and has other commitments for most of this week. I've got business commitments Monday and Tuesday, but I hope to go out to the site
Tuesday night for more testing. We will be short handed so if you are in the So cal area and don't mind hard work in the sun at a site with no good shelter and no running water we could really use some help.